Uncertainty Estimation

Fisheries management requires risk assessments, and methods for quantitatively evaluating changes in fish stocks or ecological systems.  To evaluated risk and change, fisheries managers and scientists must be armed with a quantitative understanding of survey uncertainty that includes all the components of measurement and sampling error, both random and systematic.  These errors must be incorporated into ecosystem analyses, and explicitly accounted for in stock assessment models and management advice.  AST has investigative efforts and/or interests in:

  • Methods for quantifying the components of systematic and random error in survey measurements and sampling;
  • Techniques for summarizing these components of error into estimates of total survey error;
  • Techniques for incorporating systematic and random survey error in stock assessment models;
  • Strategies for detecting changes in measurement data series which include systematic and random error;
  • Applications of statistical process control theory to fisheries management; and
  • Strategies for managing fish stocks in the presence of measurement and sampling uncertainty.


Last modified: 12/24/2014